Brief Forecast from www.wunderground.com
Today
Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. Southeast winds around 5 mph. |
Tonight
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. |
Hourly Forecast from www.weather.com
Surface Analysis Chart from www.aviationweather.gov/adds
Skew-T from NOAA through XC-Skies
Top of Lift from XC Skies
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 232 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE PERIOD OF DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. ALOFT THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY RIDGED AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE NORTH. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH AND NO COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE WARMING TREND OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST AS 850 MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND +12C. WITH A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PUSH WELL INLAND. TRENDED THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES COOLER AS PER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHERE READINGS HAVE STRUGGLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...BUT WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION THEY SHOULD MAKE THE LOW 70S THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE PRIOR TO DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... CONSISTENT...DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG RIDGING BY FRIDAY. H5 HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE 584-586 RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CENTERED MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. WEAK EASTERLY WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OR CONVECTION FOR THAT MATTER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.