Today’s weather is looking okay for the Practice Day at the Seniors.  It will be blue with thermal tops around 5,000′.  Lift may average 3 knots.  Below is a brief forecast outlook, surface analysis chart, the NAM-based forecast model sounding, and the top of lift forecast from XC Skies.  Finally, we have included the NWS Area Forecast.  Let us know what other weather you would like to see.

Update:  Well, I blew it on the weather.  Pilot reports did say it was blue but more like 3 kts to 3000 ft.  I’ll try to do better today.

 

Brief Forecast from www.wunderground.com

Sunny. Patchy frost early in the morning inland. Highs in the upper 60s near the coast and in the mid 70s inland. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Clear. Lows in the upper 40s near the coast and in the lower 40s inland. East winds around 5 mph.

Hourly Forecast from www.weather.com

Surface Analysis Chart from www.aviationweather.gov/adds

Skew-T from NOAA through XC-Skies

Top of Lift for Central Florida from X Skies

 

The NWS Forecast Discussion is below:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD NEARLY OVERTOP THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH THROUGH MONDAY AND SLIDE ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST.
ALOFT AT 500 MB THE FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY ZONAL BUT WITH A TREND TOWARDS SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS BY MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEND TO SHIFT ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 70S SOUTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND +8 TO +10C. THE SLOW MODERATION OF THE
AIRMASS WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPS BACK TO +12C BY MONDAY AND SO THE TEMPS EACH DAY WILL WARM TO RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NO RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...GFS HAS BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. GFS NOW SHOWS A MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE PANHANDLE AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
OF THE STATE HELPING TO MAINTAIN RATHER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A
LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...NOT MUCH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS EXPECT
TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BECOMING NEAR NORMAL.