Weather Forecast, March 15

Looks like an improvement for today.  XC Skies is calling for the Top of the Lift to be higher and is calling for some Cu.  Good luck out there.
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERIOD BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...DISPLACED EASTWARD BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THAT TRAILED A COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT AT 500 MB...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY.
Today
partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
nt_sunny Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light.

Hourly Forecast from www.weather.com

Surface Analysis Chart from www.aviationweather.gov/adds

Skew-T from NOAA through XC-Skies

Top of Lift from XC Skies

Cloudbase from XC Skies

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
251 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERIOD BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...DISPLACED EASTWARD BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THAT TRAILED A COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT AT 500 MB...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL EXIT AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
CENTER OVER ALABAMA BY 12Z WED. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH NO MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO
NOTICEABLE IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY THURSDAY AND BRING A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW MODERATION
TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EACH DAY. HOWEVER
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND SO HIGHS SHOULD BECOME
JUST A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST...AND BE WELL INTO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE
BASICALLY IDENTICAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MIRROR OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...BUT WOULD LIKELY JUST RESULT IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AND STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW.

AS FAR AS THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST GOES...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
VARIATION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES EACH DAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY RESULTING IN WEAKER SEA BREEZES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND IN
THE 70S NEAR THE COAST. WE MAY STILL SEE SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
INLAND AND IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT
10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.