Looks like an improvement for today. XC Skies is calling for the Top of the Lift to be higher and is calling for some Cu. Good luck out there.
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERIOD BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...DISPLACED EASTWARD BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THAT TRAILED A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT AT 500 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
Today
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. |
Tonight
Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. |
Hourly Forecast from www.weather.com
Surface Analysis Chart from www.aviationweather.gov/adds
Skew-T from NOAA through XC-Skies
Top of Lift from XC Skies
Cloudbase from XC Skies
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 251 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERIOD BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...DISPLACED EASTWARD BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THAT TRAILED A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT AT 500 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL EXIT AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A CENTER OVER ALABAMA BY 12Z WED. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH NO MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO NOTICEABLE IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY AND BRING A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW MODERATION TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EACH DAY. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND SO HIGHS SHOULD BECOME JUST A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST...AND BE WELL INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE BASICALLY IDENTICAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MIRROR OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ONE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...BUT WOULD LIKELY JUST RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW. AS FAR AS THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST GOES...THERE WILL BE LITTLE VARIATION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN WEAKER SEA BREEZES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST. WE MAY STILL SEE SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.