Weather Forecast for March 16, 2011

Looks like another great day.  Perhaps better than yesterday.  Clouds with cloudbase around 5,000 or higher.

 

Brief Forecast from www.wunderground.com

Today
cloudy Patchy fog early in the morning…then partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 5 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
nt_sunny Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Hourly Forecast from www.weather.com

Surface Analysis Chart from www.aviationweather.gov/adds

Skew-T from NOAA through XC-Skies

Top of Lift from XC Skies

Cloudbase from XC Skies

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN WHAT REMAINS A VERY
QUIET...DRY...AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN. BEGINNING WITH THIS
MORNING...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO
THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. A 500 MB VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CONTINUE LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW FOR COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S INTERIOR AND LOW 60S COAST. ON THURSDAY THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SAG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED SUNNY WEATHER WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
AS THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF BY FRIDAY...AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ENSURE A
COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND A WARM SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL AREAS COOLER.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THERE IS NO
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS KEEPS MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 850 MB...WHICH WOULD MEAN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NO
RAIN CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL
BE TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH WILL
SERVE TO INHIBIT OR AT LEAST DELAY THE COOLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH
OVER THE STATE AGAIN RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COASTAL BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WERE 5 DEGREES COOLER...AND
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVERHEAD...BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS TREND
CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT ONLY DROPPED
TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.