Looks like another great day. Perhaps better than yesterday. Clouds with cloudbase around 5,000 or higher.
Brief Forecast from www.wunderground.com
Today
Patchy fog early in the morning…then partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 5 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. |
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. |
Hourly Forecast from www.weather.com
Surface Analysis Chart from www.aviationweather.gov/adds
Skew-T from NOAA through XC-Skies
Top of Lift from XC Skies
Cloudbase from XC Skies
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 301 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN WHAT REMAINS A VERY QUIET...DRY...AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN. BEGINNING WITH THIS MORNING...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. A 500 MB VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW FOR COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S INTERIOR AND LOW 60S COAST. ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SAG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED SUNNY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AS THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF BY FRIDAY...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ENSURE A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND A WARM SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL AREAS COOLER. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THERE IS NO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS KEEPS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB...WHICH WOULD MEAN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT OR AT LEAST DELAY THE COOLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE PRONOUNCED COASTAL BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WERE 5 DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVERHEAD...BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS TREND CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT ONLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.